How to Research Stocks
Researching a stock is a lot like
shopping for a car. You can base a decision solely on technical specs, such as
torque, mpg and seating capacity. But it’s also important to consider how the
ride feels on the road, the manufacturer’s reputation and whether the color of
the interior will camouflage dog hair.
Investors have a name for that
type of research: fundamental analysis.
Fundamental analysis involves
looking at numbers and other measures in a company’s financials as well as
assessing the less tangible aspects of a business. This holistic approach can
help you decide whether a stock deserves a parking spot in your portfolio.
How to perform quantitative research
Quantitative research begins with
financial information that companies are required to file with the U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission:
-
Form
10-K is an annual report including key financial statements that have been
independently audited. Here you can review a company’s assets and
liabilities via the balance sheet, its sources of income and how it
handles its cash via the cash flow statement, and its revenues and
expenses via the income statement.
-
Form
10-Q provides a quarterly update on operations and the already
mentioned financial results.
-
Annual
reports include a company’s 10-K and all quarterly updates. They also
provide a business overview and often color commentary about the state of
the company for prospective and existing shareholders.
You’ll find highlights from these
filings and important financial ratios on your brokerage’s website or on major
financial news websites. This information will help you compare a company’s
performance against other candidates for your investment dollars.
Don’t get too hung up on specific
numbers. But starting with these line items will get you familiar with the
measurable inner workings of a company:
Revenue
This is the amount of money a
company brought in during the specified period. It’s the first thing you’ll see
on the income statement, which is why it’s often referred to as the “top line.”
Sometimes revenue is broken down into “operating revenue” and “nonoperating
revenue.” Operating revenue is most telling because it’s generated from the
company’s core business. Nonoperating revenue often comes from one-time
business activities, such as selling an asset.
Net income
This “bottom line” figure
— so called because it’s listed at the end of the income statement
— is the total amount of money a company has made after operating
expenses, taxes and depreciation are subtracted from revenue. Revenue is the
equivalent of your gross salary, and net income is comparable to what’s left
over after you’ve paid taxes and living expenses.
Earnings and earnings per share (EPS)
When you divide earnings by the
number of shares available to trade, you get earnings per share. This
number shows a company’s profitability on a per-share basis, which makes
it easier to compare with other companies. When you see earnings per
share followed by “(ttm)” that refers to the “trailing
twelve months.”
Earnings is far from a perfect
financial measurement because it doesn’t tell you how — or how efficiently —
the company uses its capital. Some companies take those earnings and reinvest
them in the business. Others pay them out to shareholders in the form of
dividends. It’s also easy for company management to manipulate the number by
using “creative” accounting.
Price-earnings ratio (P/E)
Dividing a company’s current
stock price by its earnings per share — usually over the last 12 months — gives
you a company’s trailing P/E ratio. Dividing the stock price by
forecasted earnings from Wall Street analysts gives you the forward P/E. This
measure of a stock’s value tells you how much investors are willing to pay to
receive $1 of the company’s current earnings.
Keep in mind that the P/E ratio
is derived from the potentially flawed earnings per share calculation, and
analyst estimates are notoriously focused on the short term. Therefore it’s not
a reliable stand-alone metric.
Return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA)
Return on equity reveals, in
percentage terms, how much profit a company generates with each dollar
shareholders have invested. The equity is shareholder equity. Return on
assets shows what percentage of its profits the company generates with
each dollar of its assets. Each is derived from dividing a company’s annual net
income by one of those measures. These percentages also tell you something
about how efficient the company is at generating profits.
Here again, beware of the
gotchas. A company can artificially boost return on equity by buying back
shares to reduce the shareholder equity denominator. Similarly, taking on
more debt — say, loans to increase inventory or finance property — increases
the amount in assets used to calculate return on assets.
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There’s no perfect financial ratio
There are endless metrics and ratios
investors can use to assess a company’s general financial health and calculate
the intrinsic value of its stock. But in all things, context is key.
Looking at a company’s revenue or
income from a single year tells you nothing about the quality of the business.
You have to look at its historical data to spot trends and a general business
trajectory. You must also compare key ratios to individual businesses in the
same industry and industry averages. Then dive into qualitative research.
If quantitative research reveals
the black-and-white financials of a company’s story, qualitative research
provides the technicolor details that give you a truer picture of its
operations and prospects.
How to perform qualitative research
Warren
Buffett famously said
: “Buy into a company because you want to own it, not
because you want the stock to go up.” That’s because when you buy stocks,
you purchase a personal stake in a business.
Doing qualitative stock research
with a business-buyer mindset helps investors focus on the qualities of a
company that truly matter in long-term
stock
investing
.
Here are some questions to help
you screen your potential business partners:
How does the company make money?
Sometimes it’s obvious, such as a
clothing retailer whose main business is selling clothes. Sometimes it’s not,
such as a fast-food company that derives most of its revenue from selling
franchises or an electronics firm that relies on providing consumer financing
for growth. A good rule of thumb that’s served Buffett well: Invest in
common-sense companies that you truly understand.
Does this company have a competitive advantage?
Look for something about the
business that makes it difficult to imitate, equal or eclipse. This could be
its brand, business model, ability to innovate, research capabilities, patent
ownership, operational excellence or superior distribution capabilities, to
name a few. The harder it is for competitors to breach the company’s moat, the
stronger the competitive advantage.
How good is the management team?
A company is only as good as its
leaders’ ability to plot a course and steer the enterprise. What is their
industry experience? Tenure and career trajectory? How big a personal stake do
the corner-office dwellers have in the company they run, and are portions of
their salaries tied directly to company performance?
You can find out a lot about
management by reading their words in the transcripts of company conference
calls and annual reports, and how they respond to questions from the press.
Also research the company’s board of directors, the people representing
shareholders in the boardroom. Be wary of boards comprised mainly of company
insiders. You want to see a healthy number of independent thinkers who can
objectively assess management’s actions.
Will this company be around in 20 years?
You want to buy a stake in a
business so you can share in its long-term prosperity, right? So, bottom line,
what could go wrong? We’re not talking about developments that might affect the
company’s stock price in the short-term, but fundamental changes that affect a
business’s ability to grow over many years. Identify potential red flags using
“what if” scenarios: An important patent expires; the CEO’s successor starts
taking the business in a different direction; a viable competitor emerges; new
technology usurps the company’s product or service.
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Put it all together
Pick a company you’re interested
in, and dig in. Read current and past annual reports and letters to
shareholders. Gather the numbers and financial ratios and put them all into
context by comparing the company’s performance history to the industry and its
peers. Then put on your business-buyer hat and work through the list of
qualitative questions.
A combination of quantitative and
qualitative research helps you more deeply understand a company’s
operations, its place in the industry, its competitors, its long-term potential
and, ultimately, if it’s worth making room for in your portfolio for the long
road trip ahead.
Dayana Yochim is a staff
writer at NerdWallet, a personal finance website. Email: dyochim@nerdwallet.com. Twitter: @dayanayochim.
The article How to Research Stocks originally appeared
on NerdWallet.